Daily Rate Lock Advisory

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

High

Neutral

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

This morning’s big news was the release of July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) that showed no surprises. It revealed a 0.1% increase in the overall reading and a 0.2% rise in the core data that excludes food and energy costs. On an annual basis, the overall reading grew at a 3.4% annual pace while the core reading was at 2.5%. Both of the year over year numbers were down 0.1% from June’s rate. All of these readings matched expectations, indicating consumer level inflation grew modestly last month and slowed similarly from this time last year. We are seeing a positive response to the data because it did not come in stronger than expected.

Medium

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

We also have today’s 10-year Treasury Note auction to watch that will tell us how investors feel about long-term debt right now. Results of the sale will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, making this an early afternoon event for rates. If the results point to a strong demand from investors, particularly international buyers, we could see bonds extend this morning’s gains during afternoon trading. That could lead to a slight downward revision to mortgage rates before the end of the day. On the other hand, a lackluster interest could lead to broader selling in the bond market that may push mortgage rates higher. This scenario will be repeated tomorrow when 30-year Bonds are being auctioned.

High

Unknown

Producer Price Index (PPI)

Tomorrow brings us another important inflation reading along with the weekly unemployment update. July’s Producer Price Index (PPI) will tell us inflationary pressures at the wholesale level of the economy rather than this morning’s consumer reading. Analysts are predicting an increase of 0.2% in the overall index and a rise of 0.3% in the core data for July with annual rates falling more than this morning’s version showed. Good news for rates should be softer readings both monthly and annually, partly because stronger wholesale inflation often carries into the consumer level of the economy eventually.

Medium

Positive

Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

Also early tomorrow will be the release of last week’s unemployment figures. They are expected to show 202,000 new claims for jobless benefits were filed, up from the previous week’s 199,000 initial filings. Rising claims are a sign of weakness in the employment sector, meaning a larger than predicted number would be favorable for mortgage rates.

Rate Lock Advisory

Mortgage Rate Trend

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Producer Price Index (PPI)

Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

Float / Lock Recommendation